US China Relations Post 2024 Election
As the U.S. presidential election nears, China’s leaders are intensely focused on the potential ramifications for Sino-U.S. relations. Analysts from Beijing view the competition as the “vibes election,” underscoring their belief that despite the different personas of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the substance of their policies on China is likely to be remarkably similar. Both candidates are anticipated to continue a strategic rivalry with China, casting Taiwan’s future in a state of high uncertainty.
For China, a Harris or Trump presidency portends a continuation of strategic competition, with implications that extend well beyond bilateral trade and into regional security, especially concerning Taiwan. This critical flashpoint has become a proxy battleground, reflecting larger global tensions as both nations stake claims in the Indo-Pacific region.
Harris and Trump: Same Policy, Different Vibes
While Harris is often seen as an extension of the Biden administration’s policies, Trump’s return could signal a more abrasive approach. Wang Yiwei, an international relations expert from Renmin University, describes Harris as a “Trumpist without the Trump,” emphasizing Beijing’s view that a Harris administration would remain firm on its current policies, especially in the economic realm.
In her convention speech on August 22, Harris committed to ensuring that the U.S. emerges as the dominant global power of the 21st century, a nod to her intention of continuing a competitive stance against China. Though her foreign policy track record is sparse, she has echoed Biden’s focus on economic resilience by promising to strengthen domestic industries—a stance that supports the continuation of high tariffs on Chinese imports, a hallmark of Trump’s trade war.
Meanwhile, Trump, if elected, would likely renew his trade offensive, exacerbating tensions. Jude Blanchette of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) predicts that a second Trump term would heighten economic friction, with increased tariffs and additional measures against Chinese companies. In short, the U.S.-China relationship would likely remain on edge, irrespective of the outcome.
Taiwan at the Heart of Sino-U.S. Tensions
Taiwan remains a highly sensitive issue, and its future hangs in the balance as Washington and Beijing navigate their rivalry. Earlier this year, pro-sovereignty candidate Lai Ching-te assumed the presidency of Taiwan, which prompted an immediate reaction from China. Beijing’s longstanding “one China” policy frames Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, and it views Lai’s stance as a direct challenge.
Regardless of who wins the White House, the U.S. is unlikely to abandon its ambiguous yet committed support for Taiwan. The Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979, legally binds the U.S. to provide Taiwan with defense resources, and this support has only solidified over the years.
According to Drew Thompson of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, both Harris and Trump recognize Taiwan’s strategic value as a democratic ally and major player in the tech industry. “The U.S. will continue to value Taiwan as a crucial partner in a tense neighborhood,” he says, underscoring the bipartisan support for Taiwan.
Trade Wars and Economic Policies
Trade has been the cornerstone of U.S.-China tensions, and this election is unlikely to change that. Harris has indicated a willingness to extend tariffs on Chinese goods, supporting Biden’s policy of domestic economic resilience. Her focus on rebuilding the American middle class aligns with Biden’s push to reduce reliance on China for manufactured goods.
In contrast, Trump’s aggressive trade policies would likely exacerbate these tensions. Known for his direct and confrontational style, Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose more tariffs and restrictions on Chinese companies. A second Trump administration could see a renewed push to decouple from China economically, particularly in sectors critical to national security, such as technology and telecommunications.
Wang Jisi, a prominent Chinese strategist, observes that Beijing expects this economic decoupling to continue, noting that bipartisan support for a tough stance on China is one of the few points of agreement in U.S. politics. Both candidates, according to Wang, are expected to maintain high tariffs and other economic barriers, making it clear that economic cooperation with China will remain constrained.
Climate Change: Cooperation or Confrontation?
Climate policy has been one of the few areas where the U.S. and China have historically collaborated. However, recent developments suggest that this cooperation may be in jeopardy, particularly if Trump returns to the White House. Trump’s past disregard for climate issues raises concerns about the continuity of national-level dialogues on climate change.
If Harris is elected, experts expect her to engage China through subnational dialogues, focusing on state-level or provincial partnerships. This approach is seen as a contingency plan, particularly if Trump’s potential re-election stifles federal-level climate diplomacy. According to Kate Logan, associate director of climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, China is already exploring these subnational channels, signaling its readiness to work around Washington if necessary.
South China Sea: A Strategic Battleground
The South China Sea, one of the world’s most contested regions, is another flashpoint where U.S.-China relations will play out. With over 60% of global maritime trade passing through these waters, both nations have a vested interest in maintaining stability. The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, has claims in these waters that directly conflict with China’s expansive territorial assertions.
Though Trump’s approach to international alliances has been inconsistent, his administration was relatively firm on defending the Philippines’ interests in the South China Sea. Harris, if elected, would likely continue to bolster U.S. alliances, positioning the U.S. as a counterweight to Chinese expansionism in the region.
Drew Thompson notes that both administrations would face pressure to maintain stability in the South China Sea, but Trump might be more willing to make concessions to Beijing if it serves broader U.S. economic interests. In contrast, Harris’s administration would probably emphasize a rules-based order and multilateral cooperation, reinforcing alliances with Southeast Asian nations.
Taiwanese Perspectives on the U.S. Election
For ordinary Taiwanese citizens, the U.S. election is a distant yet consequential event. Many view the U.S. as a key ally, but there is also a sense of resignation, as they lack control over the outcome. Zhang Zhi-yu, a 71-year-old shopkeeper from Hualien, exemplifies this sentiment. She believes that Trump is “crazy and irresponsible,” yet remains skeptical about foreign intervention. “If war breaks out, people like us won’t be rescued first,” she says, reflecting a common apprehension among Taiwanese.
A Brookings Institution poll found that 55% of Taiwanese people believe the U.S. will support Taiwan in a crisis, regardless of who wins the election. This cautious optimism reflects Taiwan’s reliance on U.S. backing while underscoring the uncertainty that surrounds the island’s future.
Timeline of Key Events and Expert Insights
- January 2024: Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te, a pro-sovereignty leader, sparking immediate tensions with Beijing.
- August 22, 2024: Kamala Harris speaks at the Democratic National Convention, vowing to prioritize American interests over China’s.
- October 2024: Analysts predict similar U.S. policies on China regardless of the election’s outcome.
Expert Opinions:
- Wang Yiwei: Harris will likely continue Biden’s policies, posing similar challenges for China as Trump’s more direct approach.
- Jude Blanchette: Trump’s return could increase trade tensions, though both candidates are expected to maintain a consistent strategic direction.
- Drew Thompson: Taiwan remains crucial to U.S. interests as a democratic ally, despite any superficial differences between Harris and Trump’s rhetoric.
Conclusion
The upcoming U.S. election represents a critical juncture for U.S.-China relations. With both Harris and Trump expected to pursue a policy of strategic competition, the path forward for Taiwan, trade, and regional stability remains fraught with uncertainty. The overarching themes of rivalry and tension will likely persist, regardless of the election’s outcome, as both candidates vie to secure U.S. interests in an increasingly complex global landscape.
Ultimately, Beijing is preparing for a future where the U.S. remains a formidable competitor, with Taiwan at the heart of this enduring conflict. While the candidates’ approaches may vary in tone, the substance of their policies will likely uphold the status quo of cautious confrontation, leaving the world to wait and watch as these two superpowers navigate an uncertain future.
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FAQs and Answers:
- Q1: Why does the U.S. election impact China-U.S. relations?
- The election influences policies on trade, defense, and foreign relations, which directly affect China-U.S. dynamics.
- Q2: How will Taiwan’s new leader affect U.S.-China relations?
- Taiwan’s pro-sovereignty stance intensifies tensions between the U.S. and China, especially over the “One China” policy.
- Q3: What is the significance of trade policies between the U.S. and China?
- Trade policies impact economic stability and have wider geopolitical implications, influencing global markets and alliances.
- Q4: How does the South China Sea factor into U.S.-China relations?
- The South China Sea is crucial for maritime trade. U.S.-China disputes here affect regional security and global commerce.
- Q5: Will U.S.-China relations improve regardless of the election outcome?
- Relations are expected to remain tense due to strategic competition, irrespective of the election result.
