Introduction: Jaishankar SCO Summit
In an era marked by geopolitical complexities, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar’s upcoming visit to Pakistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ‘Heads of Government’ summit is a significant milestone. This visit, slated for mid-October 2024, symbolizes a rare instance of high-level diplomatic engagement between India and Pakistan after nearly a decade of diplomatic silence. The implications of this trip, the underlying political tensions, and the context of regional cooperation make it one of the most highly anticipated events in South Asian diplomacy.
A Historic Visit in the Midst of Prolonged Tensions
Dr. S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad is nothing short of historic. The last time an Indian foreign minister stepped into Pakistani territory was in December 2015, when the late Sushma Swaraj attended the Fifth Ministerial Conference of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process in Islamabad. Back then, there was cautious optimism about fostering better relations between the two nations. However, the 2016 Uri terror attack—followed by retaliatory surgical strikes from India—marked a turning point, drastically souring ties between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Jaishankar’s visit this month is a diplomatic necessity under the framework of the SCO but carries a much larger symbolic weight. As the first visit by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan in nearly a decade, it rekindles cautious hopes of dialogue, even though both countries have made it clear that no formal bilateral talks will take place.
India’s Commitment to Multilateral Diplomacy
India’s participation in the SCO summit, even in Pakistan, underscores its commitment to multilateral diplomacy and regional dialogue. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), formed in 2001, is an influential regional body comprising eight member nations, including India, Pakistan, China, and Russia. Despite the strained bilateral relations between India and Pakistan, both countries have continued to engage in the SCO, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation in issues such as security, counterterrorism, and trade.
External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal confirmed Dr. Jaishankar’s attendance at the summit, which will take place in Islamabad on October 15th and 16th, 2024. Jaiswal stated, “EAM Jaishankar will lead the Indian delegation to Pakistan for the SCO summit.” Although the visit is being framed strictly as participation in a multilateral forum, the optics of an Indian foreign minister’s presence in Pakistan cannot be ignored.
Decade-Long Diplomatic Freeze
The deterioration of India-Pakistan relations can be traced back to 2016, following the Uri terror attack, which led to a breakdown in dialogue between the two countries. Since then, India has made it clear that any discussions with Pakistan would only resume if the latter takes concrete actions to curb cross-border terrorism and dismantle terror networks operating from its soil. The diplomatic freeze has seen both nations engage in heated exchanges at international platforms, but no substantial effort has been made to resolve the core issues.
Notably, India’s participation in Pakistan-hosted events has been limited since then. While a few Indian ministers have visited Pakistan for specific events, such as the groundbreaking ceremony of the Kartarpur Corridor in 2018, high-level engagement has remained elusive. Jaishankar’s visit, therefore, marks a notable departure from the status quo, even though it is being conducted under the multilateral umbrella of the SCO.
SCO Summit: A Forum for Regional Stability
The SCO, which was originally formed as a regional security bloc focused on Central Asia, has evolved into a broader forum addressing issues like counterterrorism, economic cooperation, and connectivity. India joined the SCO as a full member in 2017 and has actively participated in its summits, leveraging the platform to advocate for its security concerns, particularly regarding terrorism. The SCO also provides India with an avenue to engage with Central Asian nations, a region of growing strategic importance.
This year’s summit in Islamabad will focus on economic and security issues pertinent to the region, including infrastructure connectivity, energy cooperation, and counterterrorism initiatives. With China and Russia also playing key roles in the SCO, the forum offers an opportunity for India to balance its diplomatic relationships in the region while navigating the complexities of its bilateral issues with Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Hosting of Zakir Naik: A Diplomatic Stumbling Block
One of the recent flashpoints in India-Pakistan relations has been Pakistan’s decision to welcome controversial Islamic preacher Zakir Naik, who is wanted by Indian authorities on charges of hate speech and money laundering. Naik’s high-profile welcome in Pakistan has drawn sharp criticism from India, with the Ministry of External Affairs condemning the move.
MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal remarked, “We are not surprised that a fugitive from Indian justice has received a high-level welcome in Pakistan. It is disappointing and condemnable.” This issue has added another layer of tension to an already fraught relationship, and while it is unlikely to impact Jaishankar’s visit for the SCO summit, it remains a contentious issue between the two nations.
India has also raised the matter with Malaysia, where Zakir Naik has been residing for several years, during Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s visit to New Delhi earlier this year. The controversy surrounding Naik’s presence in Pakistan reflects the broader challenges in India-Pakistan relations, where diplomatic progress is frequently hampered by contentious issues related to terrorism and extremism.
Expert Opinions: A Diplomatic Necessity or Missed Opportunity?
Experts are divided on the potential implications of Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan. While some view it as a diplomatic necessity under the SCO framework, others see it as a missed opportunity for deeper engagement between India and Pakistan. Former Indian diplomat Rakesh Sood commented, “While the visit is primarily for a multilateral summit, it sends a message that India remains committed to regional diplomacy. However, it is unlikely to lead to any significant breakthroughs in bilateral relations.”
On the other hand, international relations expert Sameera Fazili argued that the visit is more symbolic than substantive. “This visit will be closely watched, but expectations should be tempered. Given the current state of relations, it is unrealistic to expect any major shift in India-Pakistan dynamics.”
Timeline of Key Diplomatic Engagements Between India and Pakistan
- December 8-9, 2015: Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj leads a delegation to Islamabad for the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process conference.
- August 2016: Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh attends a SAARC meeting of Interior/Home Ministers in Islamabad, marking his last visit before tensions escalate.
- November 2018: Union Ministers Harpreet Kaur Badal and Hardeep Singh Puri attend the foundation stone-laying ceremony for the Kartarpur Corridor, symbolizing a rare moment of cooperation between the two nations.
- October 2024: Dr. S. Jaishankar to attend the SCO Heads of Government summit in Islamabad.
Conclusion: The Complex Road Ahead for India-Pakistan Relations
While Dr. S. Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan for the SCO summit is a significant diplomatic event, it remains firmly rooted within the context of multilateral engagement rather than bilateral rapprochement. The visit symbolizes India’s commitment to regional cooperation through forums like the SCO but is unlikely to result in any major breakthrough in the fraught relationship between India and Pakistan. As both countries continue to navigate their complex political realities, multilateral platforms like the SCO offer an essential space for dialogue, even if direct negotiations between New Delhi and Islamabad remain on hold.
For now, the world will watch closely as Jaishankar leads the Indian delegation to Islamabad, a step that—while symbolic—keeps the door to diplomacy slightly ajar amidst years of tension.
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FAQs with Answers
Q1. What is the significance of Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan?
Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan marks the first trip by an Indian foreign minister to the country in almost a decade. It’s significant due to the longstanding diplomatic tensions between the two nations, making it a symbolic gesture for regional cooperation under the SCO framework.
Q2. What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)?
SCO is a regional intergovernmental organization focused on political, economic, and security-related cooperation between its member states, including China, Russia, India, and Pakistan.
Q3. Will there be bilateral talks between India and Pakistan during Jaishankar’s visit?
No, as of now, there is no indication of formal bilateral talks between India and Pakistan during Jaishankar’s visit. The focus is strictly on the SCO summit.
Q4. How often does the SCO Heads of Government Summit take place?
The SCO Heads of Government Summit is an annual meeting where leaders of the member states gather to discuss and coordinate policies on economic cooperation, regional development, and security issues.
Q5. What other high-level engagements have occurred between India and Pakistan in recent years?
Some notable high-level engagements include the 2018 foundation stone-laying ceremony for the Kartarpur Corridor and the visit of Indian ministers Harpreet Kaur Badal and Hardeep Singh Puri to Pakistan for the same.
